Getting rid of fossil fuels is really hard – and we’re not making much progress

Opinion

Getting rid of fossil fuels is really hard – and we’re not making much progress

Pro Vice Chancellor Sustainability Professor Martin Brueckner, Dr Charles Roche and Associate Professor Tauel Harper for The Conversation.

If miners, the media, policymakers and renewable energy companies are to be believed, Australia is in the midst of a green energy transition aimed at preventing the worst effects of climate change.

This appealing narrative suggests we are progressively reducing greenhouse emissions by replacing fossil fuels with clean alternatives such as wind and solar power, batteries and electric vehicles.

But there’s a real problem in accepting this idea without question. To date, the green energy transition has largely added more energy to the mix, rather than . In other words, our decarbonisation is yet to begin in earnest.

For countries with a laser focus on economic growth such as Australia, this means shifting away from fossil fuels is particularly challenging. Growth and fossil fuel use have long been linked.

As one of the world’s top three liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, Australia exports . Tackling climate change would mean picking a fight with powerful industries that have dominated Australia’s economy and politics for decades.

Confronting the true scale of the decarbonisation challenge is daunting. We need to challenge fossil fuel interests in politics and consider whether continual economic growth can ever be compatible with climate stability.

Is the transition a mirage?

For at least two decades in Australia, much effort has gone towards making the green energy transition a reality. Solar panels are now on , while wind farms and large-scale solar funnel ever more energy into power grids, reaching in the main grid this year. Electric vehicles are becoming more common on Australian roads, and the production of green steel is nascent but promising.

Australia’s direct emissions are slowly , due mainly to changes in land uses and, more recently, to renewables replacing coal plants. The latest figures show a over the past year. But if the emissions of Australian gas and coal are considered, Australia’s emissions would still be rising.

Positive trends that less and less fossil fuels will need to be burned.

This, however, isn’t guaranteed. Energy historians new forms of energy don’t necessarily replace the older ones. Instead, they are getting .

The world economy now uses more . As a result, greenhouse gas emissions are as fossil fuels continue to be used alongside renewables.

Hungry for energy

Energy use, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth have long gone hand in hand. While some richer countries are economic growth from carbon emissions, these countries often effectively export emissions to poorer nations. It’s proving far harder to make while still growing the economy.

In economics, it’s long been believed that energy consumption by how fast an economy is growing.

Energy economists have since learned the opposite may be true: that only when energy is available, economic growth . When new energy sources emerge, they will be used to build more, drive technological change and other economic activities.

While hope new technology will make it possible to keep expanding the economy at minimal environmental cost, these hopes are .

In theory, renewable energy resources are near-infinite. If the world ran on 100% renewables, continual economic growth might be possible. But adding renewable energy to the mix while we exploit all available carbon-based energy won’t be enough to or save species .

The way we think about the economy has to change from a focus on infinite growth to a restorative approach.

Fossil fuels won’t go without a fight

China’s recent success in through very rapid renewable energy deployment suggests low-carbon development is . But even this historic effort to make the rapid, deep emission cuts needed to stave off the worst of climate change. China’s decades-long focus on economic growth has come at to its environment more broadly.

China’s massive renewables expansion was possible only because its government has actively pursued decarbonisation as a national priority, alongside building clean energy industries.

It’s a different story in Australia. While the nation has taken up solar at world-beating speed, successive governments have also worked to the LNG industry and keep coal alive.

From the Howard era onward, fossil fuel lobbyists have fought against the adoption of strong emissions targets, of climate action, and worked to stop measures such as the .

It seems unthinkable for an Australian government to deny a fossil fuel producer anything. Federal approval for Woodside’s giant North West Shelf project is only the latest example of a political system unable to make the changes necessary to meaningfully cut emissions.

It doesn’t have to be this way, of course. Australia is rich in sun, wind, metals and critical minerals. Prominent figures from to to have laid out how Australia could create large new green industries as the sun sets on fossil fuels. Big Australian companies say rapid emission cuts huge new industries. But our attitude towards exploiting existing energy resources needs to change.

Grasping the true difficulty of keeping Australia’s fossil fuels safely in the ground is an essential first step before we can begin a more honest discussion about how to achieve a prosperous and safe future.

Cutting emissions fast enough to avoid the very worst of climate change will require far greater ambition and far-reaching structural change to the economy.

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Opinion